One Thing Each Celtic Needs to do This Season
What each member of the preseason championship favorites can do to fulfill the squad's potential
Coming off a finals loss, the Celtics will look to the new season to recommence their quest for Banner 18. Outside of Daniel Theis, last year’s playoff rotation remains completely intact, with Malcom Brogdon, Blake Griffin, and potentially Danilo Gallinari added to the mix. Sam Hauser and Luke Kornet, non-factors a season ago, may also see increased roles.
Boston currently sits as the betting favorite to win the championship per FanDuel Sportsbook, and I’d agree with the oddsmakers’ evaluation; the Celtics boast the best roster in basketball. But championships aren’t won on paper. To fulfill their championship aspirations, each Celtic will need to execute to the best of his abilities. Here’s one thing every guaranteed rotation player can do to help ensure the Celtics are alone at the top come June.
Jayson Tatum: Thrive in the mid-range
Already one of the best players in the league, Jayson Tatum’s primary responsibility this season is simply to be himself. The version of Tatum whose remarkable play carried the Celtics through the Eastern Conference is more than capable of leading them to the promised land this year. His play on both ends last season offered optimism that he could cement himself as a “two-way wing creator”, the peak of the modern NBA’s archetypical mountain. Still, while his status as an MVP-caliber player cannot be questioned, it would be premature to vault him into that top tier of players alongside names such as Steph, Jokic, Luka, and Giannis. With a mid-range game reminiscent of previous seasons, however, Tatum could earn his seat next to the best, becoming the ideal offensive engine for Boston.
Tatum on short-mid-range attempts:
2019-20: 82nd percentile frequency & 74th percentile efficiency
2020-21: 86th percentile frequency & 67th percentile efficiency
2021-22: 34th percentile frequency & 27th percentile efficiency
Tatum on long-mid-range attempts:
2019-20: 73rd percentile frequency & 83rd percentile efficiency
2020-21: 79th percentile frequency & 91st percentile efficiency
2021-22: 63rd percentile frequency & 44th percentile efficiency
It’s unclear why this dip occurred, for his pull-up 2s have always been high-difficulty, but it’s reasonable to believe that he’s capable of returning to the output of 2020-21 and 2019-20. Despite his drastic fall-off in mid-range scoring production, Tatum had his most efficient season since he was a rookie in 2021-22 due to improvements as a finisher and excellence from deep.
With Brogdon adding more ball-handling, Coach Mazzulla has been experimenting with Tatum as a screener more extensively than ever. Being able to mix in easy tries off of short pops and whatnot will help him build rhythm from mid-range. I’m not advocating for him to hoist up loads of difficult long twos; rather to utilize his touch and shot-making to counter rim protection more efficiently. We’ve already seen him look to utilize his floater game more in preseason, and it’s a shot he’s repeatedly stated that he’s been working on frequently. These strides won’t transform him into a completely new player, but will make him a slightly more lethal scorer and less prone to disaster on cold nights from deep. Said refinements will boost Tatum to a level at which Boston can comfortably rely on him to create some of the league’s best offense.
Jaylen Brown: Take care of the ball
Jaylen Brown’s development has known no bounds to this point. His progression as a shot-maker and slasher has made him a two-way star capable of being the second option on a finals team. He’s earned his touches as the #2 in Boston’s offense, but the results haven’t been perfect. JB’s passing ability has yet to catch up to his scoring mastery, his handle can be loose at times, and his decision-making isn’t always on point. These limitations led to far too many turnovers last postseason:
2022 Postseason Leaders in Turnovers per Game(min 10 GP):
Joel Embiid: 3.2
Devin Booker: 3.2
Jaylen Brown: 3.1
Jrue Holiday: 2.8
Draymond Green: 2.7
Steph Curry: 2.6
JB is unlike the names he’s grouped with in that he doesn’t have facilitation responsibility the other players do. Most of his turnovers simply came from carelessness—over-dribbling, trying to do too much in traffic, telegraphing passes, etc. These giveaways often disrupted Boston’s offensive flow while gifting opponents easy transition buckets. It’s unrealistic to expect JB to suddenly become a playmaker for others. Improving his ball security, however, is something I have confidence in him being able to accomplish. Taking this mini-leap will allow JB to become an even more efficient player, and make him an even better secondary creator for the Celtics offense.
Marcus Smart: Push the pace
After over a decade of rotating superstar point guards—Rondo, Isaiah, Kyrie, & Kemba—the Celtics handed the reigns to Marcus Smart last season, and the results were tremendous. On top of quarterbacking the league’s best defense, the Defensive Player of the Year had his best offensive campaign to date. He flourished as a playmaker, with his fabulous passing and screening creating oodles of opportunities for teammates. Smart’s ability to get his own was also on full display in the playoffs, where he used his 6’4” 220-lb frame and craft to function as the third-leading scorer for Boston. All in all, he averaged 15.4 PPG and 5.9 APG on 54 TS% in the postseason.
Last season, the Celtics ranked just 24th in pace. With the league’s best defense, this is an alarming fact, and is low-hanging fruit for improvement. The onus lies on every player, as well as Coach Mazzulla, but as the point guard and leader, Smart has to take the lead to push the pace. He’s the team’s best facilitator, and can create even more easy buckets Tatum and JB in transition. Every offense benefits from generating easy looks in transition, especially when it helps your top scorers gain a rhythm.
Robert Williams III: Roll hard
Robert Williams III is set to miss 8-12 weeks after receiving surgery on his left knee, adding another chapter to his injury-riddled career. Obviously the foremost necessity for Rob is to stay on the court because when he’s available, he brings an irreplaceable dynamic to the Celtics. His unprecedented athletic traits fuel his claims as both the league’s best shot-blocker and lob threat. An argument can be made that even with Smart winning DPOY, Rob's ability to roam and protect the rim was the most significant aspect of Boston’s historic defense. On offense, the vertical threat he brings as a lob threat and offensive rebounder warps opposing defenses, and makes him a pick-and-roll partner unlike any other Celtic.
To maximize the pressure he puts on the rim, Rob needs to roll a bit harder. There were too many occurrences last season in which he would set a ball-screen and fizzle out of the action as a non-threat or belatedly trail behind the ball handler. Instead, he really needs to emphasize establishing a threat above the rim early and force defenders to scramble to confine it. Rolling faster and harder will help Rob feast more in the pick-and-roll while also making the job easier for the ball-handlers.
Al Horford: Run the floor
At age 36, Al Horford is more prone to declining than any other member of the Celtics core, but he’s shown no signs of it thus far. His smarts and shooting on offense make him an asset in Boston’s 5-out offense, and his defense remains impactful as ever.
Saying Al needs to run the floor this season almost seems like a rude ask at its surface, but I’m not talking about Timelord-style rim-running. He just needs to position himself at the top of the key to serve as a screener and linking passer for quick-hitting attacks in semi-transition. As I alluded to earlier, the Celtics need to emphasize pushing the pace this season, and Al can play a large part in that. He’s already set many “wide” screens and dished out rapid pitches for trailing teammates in semi-transition to aid teammates in getting easy buckets in preseason, and should continue to do so.
Malcolm Brogdon: Engine efficient offense in non-Tatum minutes
The one glaring hole the Celtics had last season was the inability to consistently get to the rim to force complete rotations. While Tatum and Smart could bully their way to the cup often, and Jaylen would often shock defenses with quick-hitting drives off-the-catch, nobody on the roster could pair a dependable handle with quickness and speed to consistently dust their man off-the-dribble. To address this issue, Brad Stevens went out and traded for one of the best rim-pressurers in the game: Malcolm Brogdon. Brogdon led all players classified as “Primary Ball Handlers” by BBall Index in self-created attempts at the rim per possession last season and converted these shots at a good rate.
Among 2021-22 players in our Primary Ball Handler offensive role: ⬆️ Elite shooting at rim (difficulty-adjusted) ⬇️ Bad shooting at rim (difficulty-adjusted) ➡️ High unassisted rim attempt rate ⬅️ Low unassisted rim attempt rate Headshots Tool: bball-index.com/headshots-scat…
Brogdon brings a lot more than just elite advantage creation, though. Over his last couple of seasons in Indiana, he averaged 20.4 PPG and 5.9 APG while shooting 36.3% from 3 on over 6 attempts per contest, even vaulting himself into serious all-star consideration in 2021. He can flex on-ball and off-ball roles on offense without sacrificing defense, for his 6’5” frame allows him to check guards and some wings. Brogdon will be incredible in the Celtics’ 5-out, free-flowing, offense. Boston hasn’t employed a complex offensive scheme in quite some time, rather hunting mismatches and letting the players figure out the rest. With Brogdon added to the fold, their drive-and-kick game will be bolstered to entirely new heights.
In non-Tatum minutes last postseason, the Celtics struggled to create any offense at all. Their offensive rating dropped over 6 points per 100 possessions with Tatum out, and it’s not hard to see why. Jaylen Brown is more of an off-ball scorer, who greatly benefits from playing off of other creators, and while Marcus Smart has developed into a good complimentary creator, he’s far from one who can shoulder a large burden efficiently. With Brogdon’s ability to break down defenses to facilitate for others while balancing getting his own, and doing so with volume, he’ll be the primary creator for lineups not featuring Tatum. He’ll need to conduct units efficiently, as Boston relying on Tatum so heavily once again would not be ideal.
Derrick White: Make enough 3s
Derrick White is one of the most underrated players in the league. He may be better than every non-Celtics guard in the NBA on defense, and his driving craft, passing, and off-ball savvy add to his list of strengths. On the other hand, his status as a shooter is murkier. Last year he made just over 31% of his attempts from beyond the arc, while over the two previous seasons, he made 35.5% of them. White hitting more 3s would:
Add more shooting around the creators
Force defenses to close out to him—leading to easy paths downhill where his driving craft and passing can flourish
Not allow defenses to leave him to play help defense
It’s not easy to define what making “enough” 3s looks like. That’s more up to defenses, and each coach has their own philosophy. But if White ends up making 35-36% of a solid volume of attempts across of a range of difficulty, it’ll be hard for defenses to not respect his shot. After that, all the benefits mentioned above rain in. He shot 10-for-18 from 3 in preseason; let’s hope he keeps this up.
Grant Williams: Be decisive off the catch
Game 7 of the Milwaukee series in last season’s playoffs was a message to the rest of the league from Grant Williams. His 27-point performance crushed Milwaukee’s dreams of repeating, and his 7/18 shooting from 3 signaled to the NBA world that he’s a legitimate shooter. Now, given that he’ll be drawing real closeouts, his process off-the-catch gets a lot more complicated. No longer can he simply sink defenses by draining open 3s. Grant will have to weigh his options between shooting contested looks, or continuing advantages by putting the ball on the floor, which he can both do at a high level. What he cannot do, however, is hesitate. Pump-faking-and-pausing or catching-and-holding are easy ways for him to book his spot on the bench. As long as he’s decisive and doesn’t give defenders time to recover after receiving the ball, Grant will become the 8th starting-caliber player for the Celtics.
Sam Hauser: Hold up on switches
After one of the best college shooting careers of all-time, sophomore Sam Hauser now finds himself as the best shooter on the championship favorite. There are no limits to what he can do as a shooter, especially off-the-catch. He also has a knack for filling in gaps without the ball, slipping into layup attempts. What sets him apart from other sharp-shooting off-ball weapons is his height. Listed at 6’7”, Hauser shrugs off contests like they don’t exist.
His size is just as important on the other side of the ball, where he can’t simply get thrown around like a Payton Pritchard. However, he isn’t the quickest guy on his feet when guarding the ball. To see significant playing time this season, and let Boston reap the benefits of his marksmanship, Hauser will have to fulfill his duty in their “switch-everything” defensive scheme. He doesn’t have to lock down his assignment, rather just use his size and wits to contain his man.